Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 143,249
2 Rhode Island 142,206
3 South Dakota 139,812
4 Utah 125,640
5 Tennessee 123,527
6 Arizona 119,999
7 Iowa 117,109
8 Wisconsin 115,075
9 Nebraska 115,028
10 South Carolina 114,385
11 Oklahoma 114,046
12 New Jersey 113,835
13 Arkansas 112,283
14 Alabama 110,186
15 Delaware 109,974
16 Indiana 109,819
17 Illinois 108,202
18 Kansas 107,827
19 New York 107,179
20 Florida 106,806
21 Idaho 106,517
22 Mississippi 105,850
23 Minnesota 105,522
24 Nevada 104,241
25 Montana 103,693
26 Georgia 102,801
27 Wyoming 102,325
28 Kentucky 101,941
29 Massachusetts 101,898
30 Texas 101,101
31 Louisiana 100,229
32 Missouri 99,273
33 Michigan 97,927
34 Connecticut 96,945
35 New Mexico 95,947
36 California 95,415
37 North Carolina 95,277
38 Alaska 94,364
39 Ohio 93,388
40 Pennsylvania 93,108
41 Colorado 92,967
42 West Virginia 88,521
43 Virginia 78,549
44 Maryland 75,493
45 New Hampshire 71,907
46 District of Columbia 68,848
47 Washington 55,861
48 Puerto Rico 53,410
49 Maine 49,035
50 Oregon 46,471
51 Vermont 38,321
52 Hawaii 24,187

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Alabama 166
2 South Carolina 152
3 Colorado 141
4 Maine 140
5 Michigan 134
6 Minnesota 133
7 West Virginia 133
8 Delaware 128
9 Florida 120
10 Indiana 119
11 Oregon 115
12 Pennsylvania 104
13 Illinois 97
14 Massachusetts 96
15 New York 86
16 New Mexico 85
17 North Carolina 85
18 New Hampshire 84
19 Rhode Island 82
20 Wyoming 82
21 Louisiana 79
22 Puerto Rico 79
23 District of Columbia 78
24 Utah 75
25 Washington 72
26 North Dakota 70
27 Idaho 69
28 Kentucky 68
29 Hawaii 66
30 Arizona 65
31 Ohio 64
32 Tennessee 64
33 Vermont 64
34 Alaska 61
35 Connecticut 61
36 Nevada 58
37 Wisconsin 57
38 Georgia 55
39 Maryland 52
40 Missouri 51
41 Montana 50
42 Virginia 48
43 New Jersey 47
44 Iowa 45
45 Texas 45
46 Kansas 41
47 Arkansas 40
48 Oklahoma 36
49 Mississippi 35
50 Nebraska 30
51 California 28
52 South Dakota 15

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,924
2 New York 2,696
3 Massachusetts 2,578
4 Rhode Island 2,549
5 Mississippi 2,438
6 Arizona 2,399
7 Connecticut 2,298
8 Louisiana 2,256
9 South Dakota 2,252
10 Alabama 2,251
11 Pennsylvania 2,100
12 North Dakota 2,012
13 Indiana 2,003
14 Michigan 1,982
15 New Mexico 1,963
16 Illinois 1,957
17 Arkansas 1,920
18 Iowa 1,903
19 South Carolina 1,875
20 Georgia 1,870
21 Nevada 1,796
22 Tennessee 1,790
23 Texas 1,763
24 Kansas 1,743
25 Oklahoma 1,738
26 Delaware 1,695
27 Florida 1,682
28 Ohio 1,670
29 District of Columbia 1,589
30 California 1,586
31 West Virginia 1,541
32 Missouri 1,530
33 Kentucky 1,529
34 Montana 1,495
35 Maryland 1,477
36 Wisconsin 1,324
37 Minnesota 1,310
38 Virginia 1,292
39 North Carolina 1,231
40 Wyoming 1,230
41 Nebraska 1,222
42 Idaho 1,158
43 Colorado 1,144
44 New Hampshire 980
45 Puerto Rico 763
46 Washington 746
47 Utah 704
48 Oregon 620
49 Maine 597
50 Alaska 474
51 Vermont 403
52 Hawaii 345

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Kentucky 6
2 Alaska 5
3 Michigan 4
4 District of Columbia 2
5 Florida 2
6 Pennsylvania 2
7 Colorado 1
8 Connecticut 1
9 Illinois 1
10 Maryland 1
11 Massachusetts 1
12 New Jersey 1
13 New York 1
14 Oregon 1
15 Puerto Rico 1
16 South Carolina 1
17 Virginia 1
18 West Virginia 1
19 Alabama 0
20 Arizona 0
21 Arkansas 0
22 California 0
23 Delaware 0
24 Georgia 0
25 Hawaii 0
26 Idaho 0
27 Indiana 0
28 Iowa 0
29 Kansas 0
30 Louisiana 0
31 Maine 0
32 Minnesota 0
33 Mississippi 0
34 Missouri 0
35 Montana 0
36 Nevada 0
37 New Hampshire 0
38 New Mexico 0
39 North Carolina 0
40 North Dakota 0
41 Ohio 0
42 Oklahoma 0
43 Rhode Island 0
44 South Dakota 0
45 Tennessee 0
46 Texas 0
47 Utah 0
48 Vermont 0
49 Washington 0
50 Wisconsin 0
51 Wyoming 0
52 Nebraska -2

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 375,447 1 99
Crowley Colorado 362,646 2 99
Bent Colorado 275,417 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 250,170 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 246,007 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 142,508 189 93
Richland South Carolina 112,698 981 68
York South Carolina 111,887 1013 67
Orange California 85,429 2233 28
Pierce Washington 58,294 2850 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,350 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 4 99
Hancock Georgia 7,804 5 99
Orange California 1,584 1820 42
York South Carolina 1,363 2078 33
Davidson Tennessee 1,357 2089 33
Richland South Carolina 1,349 2103 33
Pierce Washington 737 2739 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons